30 Things Brands Can Still Do to Win Peak

Black Friday falls on November 27, 2026, and Cyber Monday on November 30. With just weeks to go, the brands that still have room to gain are not the ones adding more traffic. They are the ones that fix what stops international shoppers from finishing a purchase: unclear total cost, unfamiliar payment options, uncertain delivery and returns that feel risky.

The demand will be there. Adobe expects US online holiday spending to reach $275.1 billion this season, with $47.5 billion during Cyber Week alone. Last year, Salesforce tracked $336.6 billion in global Cyber Week sales, up 7%, but order volumes grew only 2%. Growth came from higher prices and bigger baskets, not more orders. Peak is won on conversion.

For cross-border brands, 2026 adds a twist. It is the first peak season with no duty-free entry for low-value parcels into either the US or the EU. And according to ESW Signals 2026, a study of more than 23,000 consumers across 18 markets, the top barriers to buying internationally are shipping costs (46%), delivery times (45%) and unclear customs and duties (32%).

Your long-lead planning is done. Here is what you can still change.

The short version

If you only have time for five things, do these:

1. Show the full landed cost, including duties and taxes, before checkout in every priority market.
2. Set margin floors by market before you set discounts, and re-quote landed cost after the 2026 de minimis changes.
3. Match payment methods to each market, not to a global template.
4. Publish delivery cutoffs by country and show an estimated delivery date at checkout.
5. Make returns policies explicit by market, and plan for roughly one in six holiday orders to come back.

 

Read demand right

1. Pick three priority markets for peak, not thirty

Demand is rising unevenly. In ESW Signals 2026, 67% of consumers in the Middle East and 61% in Asia say they have increased discretionary spending, against 44% in Europe and 30% in North America. Choose the three markets where your brand has momentum and confidence is rising, and concentrate media, inventory and service there. Keep the rest running, but don’t spread peak effort evenly.

2. Map the local peak calendar, not just US dates

Black Friday is global now, but it is not the only peak. Singles’ Day on November 11 matters across Asia, White Friday runs across the Middle East, and several markets have their own November events. Check last year’s order data by market and line up offers, inventory and service cover with the local moments that actually drove sales, not the US calendar alone.

3. Plan for an earlier, longer peak

For two years running, Black Friday has grown faster than Cyber Monday as deals move earlier. Adobe forecasts Black Friday up 9.2% this year against 6.2% for Cyber Monday, and expects October online spending to reach $95.8 billion as pre-season events pull demand forward. Have offers ready to go live in Thanksgiving week, and plan email and paid activity across the whole week rather than two days.

4. Forecast for bigger baskets, not just more orders

In 2025, Salesforce saw average selling prices rise 6% during Cyber Week while global order volumes rose only 2%. Re-forecast revenue by market with that pattern in mind. If your plan assumes order growth, check whether your fulfillment, payment and service capacity is sized for the volume you’ll actually get, and whether your offers push shoppers toward higher-value baskets.

5. Make sure AI assistants can read your products

Adobe expects traffic from AI chat and browser tools to US retail sites to grow 130% this holiday season, with the biggest jump on Thanksgiving. ESW Signals 2026 shows 57% of consumers trust AI for price comparisons. Check that product pages carry clear local prices, delivery times and returns terms in plain text, and that structured product data (price, availability, shipping and returns) is complete and up to date. Clear information can help AI assistants surface products more accurately, but brands should also ensure they’re ready to turn that recommendation into a purchase.

Price and promote with discipline

6. Set margin floors by market before you set discounts

Price is the most powerful profit lever you have. McKinsey’s long-running pricing research found a 1% improvement in price lifts operating profit by roughly 8% to 11%, which means a careless extra 5% off can erase a peak. Work out contribution margin per market after landed cost, payment fees and expected returns, then set the deepest discount each SKU can carry. Agree it with finance now, not on Black Friday morning.

7. Discount to category norms, not to panic

Adobe expects peak discounts this season of around 23% in apparel, 19% in sporting goods and 30% in electronics, with toys and computers also in the twenties. Use these as a ceiling to test against, not a target to beat. Protect new launches and hero products, and put depth on aged stock and categories where you need the volume.

8. Localize prices, don’t just convert them

Price is the main reason people shop across borders: in ESW Signals 2026, 50% of international shoppers cite better prices, ahead of wider choice (33%) and access to products not available locally (27%). That makes how your price looks in each market a conversion lever. A converted price like €47.83 signals that the brand is foreign. Set rounded, market-native price points in local currency, ideally inclusive of duties and taxes where shoppers expect it. Check that the discounted price lands on a clean number too, and that promotional messages show the saving in local currency.

9. Use bundles and gifts instead of deeper cuts

Bundles protect your price image while lifting basket size. Beauty brands can build gift sets and minis. Sportswear and equipment brands can pair apparel with accessories. Technology brands can bundle devices with cases, chargers or extended cover. A gift with purchase above a threshold often costs less in margin than another 10% off the whole range.

10. Set free-shipping thresholds per market

Shipping cost is the top barrier to buying internationally, cited by 46% of consumers in ESW Signals 2026. One global threshold rarely fits. Set each market’s threshold slightly above its average order value, so free shipping nudges baskets up instead of giving margin away, and show the remaining amount in the cart.

11. Let payment partners fund part of the offer

Wallets, buy now, pay later providers and card schemes run their own peak campaigns and often co-fund incentives for brands that join them. A partner-funded offer at checkout can lift completion without coming out of your margin. Ask your payment providers what peak programs are open in your priority markets, and make sure offers are visible before checkout, not only inside it.

12. Brief creators and affiliates now, and land them on the right page

Adobe expects affiliates and partners (including creators) and social media to gain the most share of holiday revenue this year, up 12% and 17%, against 4% for paid search. But ESW Signals 2026 shows that while 62% of consumers are influenced by social platforms, only 6% prefer to buy there. Send creator and social traffic to localized product pages with local prices and delivery dates, not to a global homepage.

Remove surprise from checkout

13. Show the full landed cost before checkout

Surprise costs kill international orders. ESW Signals 2026 found 32% of consumers are put off buying abroad by unclear customs and duties. Baymard’s research shows 40% of shoppers who abandon for a fixable reason cite extra costs that were too high, and 12% couldn’t see or calculate the total upfront. In your priority markets, show duties and taxes on the product page or in the cart, and collect them at checkout so nothing is due on delivery.

14. Re-quote landed cost after the 2026 de minimis changes

The rules for low-value parcels have changed in both of the world’s biggest consumer markets. The US suspended duty-free de minimis treatment for all countries in August 2025, and CBP made the suspension indefinite in June 2026. The EU removed its €150 customs duty exemption on July 1, 2026, replacing it with a flat €3 duty per item on qualifying parcels. Check that your product classifications, duty calculations and displayed prices reflect the current rules before peak traffic arrives.

15. Match payment methods to each market

Payment trust is local. Across ESW transaction data, 61% of international orders are paid by card, 26% by digital wallet and 6% by buy now, pay later. But the mix shifts by market: cards carry 63% of US orders, while wallets carry 48% in the UK. Salesforce saw wallets used for 27% of global Cyber Week orders last year, and Adobe expects buy now, pay later to drive $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday in the US alone. Show the right two or three methods first in each market.

16. Test checkout on mobile, in market, with real payments

Adobe expects a record 63% of Thanksgiving online spend to come through mobile devices. Run real purchases in each priority market on a phone, with local cards and wallets, and check every step: currency, address formats, duties display, payment decline messages, confirmation emails. Fix what breaks now. A test order today costs far less than a broken checkout on Black Friday.

17. Agree peak fraud rules with your payment provider

Peak traffic looks unusual by design: new customers, bigger baskets, new markets. Fraud rules tuned for October can decline good orders in November. Agree temporary thresholds with your payment and fraud partners, monitor approval rates by market each day of Cyber Week, and have someone with authority to adjust them on call.

18. Load-test and set a code freeze

Salesforce projected Black Friday 2025 global online sales at around five times an average day. Load-test your site, checkout and integrations for that multiple, then set a code freeze date in mid-November. Changes after that point should be limited to pricing, content and emergency fixes.

Make delivery promises you can keep

19. Publish holiday delivery cutoffs by country, now

Delivery time is the second biggest barrier to buying internationally, cited by 45% of consumers in ESW Signals 2026, and by 51% in the US. A longer delivery window is acceptable when it’s clear upfront. Publish the last order date for holiday delivery for each market on your site, in emails and in customer service scripts, and update it if carrier conditions change.

20. Show an estimated delivery date, not a list of shipping methods

Shoppers want to know when, not how. Replace “standard international, 5 to 10 business days” with a specific estimated delivery date on the product page and at checkout. For one global fashion brand with ESW, optimizing estimated delivery dates lifted checkout conversion by 12%. Make sure the promise is built from real carrier performance by market, not a best case.

21. Position hero stock closer to demand where you can

Shipping from in-region stock cuts delivery times and, in the EU, means goods clear customs once as a commercial shipment rather than as individual parcels. It’s too late to move a whole range now, but there may still be time for your top sellers in one or two priority markets. If not, make this a decision for 2027 and capture the data you’ll need to make it this peak.

22. Lock in carrier capacity and peak surcharges

Confirm your peak volume forecasts with carriers by market, check what surcharges apply and from when, and build them into landed cost before you finalize offers. Agree escalation contacts for Cyber Week, and set up proactive tracking notifications so customers aren’t left guessing.

23. Plan sell-through by category

Peak exposes thin inventory. Apparel and sportswear brands should check size curves by market, because running out of core sizes turns demand into returns or lost orders. Beauty brands should protect bestselling shades and gift sets. Technology brands should hold launch SKUs and make compatibility clear to reduce avoidable returns.

Get returns and service ready before the orders arrive

24. Make returns terms explicit by market, and extend the holiday window

Retailers expected 17% of holiday sales to be returned last season, and online return rates run higher still at about 19%, according to NRF and Happy Returns. Baymard finds 13% of shoppers abandon a checkout because the returns policy isn’t satisfactory. State who pays for returns, how long refunds take and where to send items for each market, and extend the window for gifts bought during peak.

25. Offer local returns instead of cross-border return shipping

Asking a customer to post a return internationally, at their own cost, turns a refund into a reason never to buy again. Use local return points or in-region return hubs in priority markets, provide prepaid labels where the economics allow, and plan how returned stock gets back into sellable inventory quickly.

26. Cut avoidable returns at the product page

The cheapest return is the one that never happens. Add market-specific size guides and fit notes for apparel and footwear, shade finders and ingredient detail for beauty, and clear compatibility and spec tables for technology. Adobe’s survey found 69% of shoppers who used AI for online shopping say they’re less likely to return what they bought, which is another reason to make product information easy for assistants to read.

27. Staff and script customer service for peak, in local languages

“Where is my order?” questions spike after Cyber Monday. ESW Signals 2026 shows 46% of consumers are open to AI if it resolves issues instantly, and Salesforce saw AI agent service conversations grow 55% week over week during Cyber Week. Use automation for tracking, address changes and return starts, and keep human agents for exceptions. Load every agent and bot with the same delivery cutoffs, duties answers and returns terms.

Plan beyond Cyber Monday

28. Plan the December gifting window now

Peak doesn’t end on November 30. Adobe expects discounts of 10% to 15% to continue through December. After Cyber Monday, shift the message from price to certainty: guaranteed delivery dates by market, gift options, extended returns and digital gift cards for shoppers who miss the last shipping date.

29. Turn peak buyers into second-order customers

Peak brings in customers you paid a lot to acquire, many of them discount-led and new to your brand. The return on that spend depends on whether they buy again. Build the welcome and post-purchase flows now, by market and in local language: replenishment for beauty, accessories and care for sportswear and technology, new-season drops for apparel. Measure second-order rate at 60 and 90 days by market, not just peak revenue.

30. Decide what you’ll measure before the first sale

If you don’t capture it during peak, you can’t learn from it in January. Agree now how you’ll track, by market: conversion and checkout drop-off, payment method mix and approval rates, orders with duties paid at checkout versus on delivery, delivery promise versus actual delivery, average order value and discount depth, and return rates and reasons. Those numbers turn your peak review into decisions instead of a debate.

Your countdown to Black Friday

1. From today: confirm priority markets and the local peak calendar, set margin floors and offer ceilings by market, agree bundles and gifts (items 1, 2, 6, 7, 9).
2. Week of October 26: re-quote landed cost after de minimis changes, set free-shipping thresholds, confirm payment mix by market, lock carrier capacity (items 10, 13, 14, 15, 22).
3. Week of November 2: publish delivery cutoffs and estimated delivery dates, brief creators and affiliates, update product data for AI assistants, set returns terms by market (items 5, 12, 19, 20, 24).
4. Week of November 9: run real test orders on mobile in every priority market, load-test, script customer service; Singles’ Day on November 11 is your rehearsal in Asia (items 16, 18, 27).
5. Week of November 16: code freeze, agree peak fraud rules, confirm measurement and dashboards (items 17, 18, 30).
6. Week of November 23: go live by Thanksgiving, monitor approval rates and drop-off daily, switch to delivery-certainty messaging after Cyber Monday (items 3, 28).

FAQs

When is Black Friday 2026? Black Friday is Friday, November 27, 2026. Thanksgiving is November 26 and Cyber Monday is November 30. Cyber Week runs from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

Is five weeks enough time to prepare for Black Friday? Yes, for the changes that most affect conversion. Landed cost display, payment mix, delivery promises, returns terms and offer design can all be adjusted in five weeks. Major re-platforming, new markets or moving inventory regions are 2027 decisions.

What has changed for cross-border ecommerce this peak? Low-value parcels no longer enter the US or the EU duty-free. The US suspended de minimis for all countries in August 2025 and made it indefinite in June 2026. The EU replaced its €150 exemption with a €3 per-item duty from July 1, 2026. Landed cost and price display need checking for both.

How deep should my Black Friday discount be? Set a margin floor by market first. Adobe expects peak discounts of around 23% in apparel, 19% in sporting goods and 30% in electronics in the US this year. Bundles and gifts with purchase often protect more margin than deeper cuts.

Which payment methods matter most for international shoppers? Cards and wallets carry most international orders: 61% and 26% respectively in ESW transaction data, with buy now, pay later at 6%. The right mix varies by market, so show the methods local shoppers trust first.

How will AI shopping assistants affect Black Friday? Adobe expects AI-referred traffic to US retail sites to grow 130% this holiday season. Shoppers mostly use AI to search and compare, so clear prices, delivery times and returns terms in readable product data make it more likely you’re recommended.

About the data

ESW Signals 2026 is based on more than 23,000 consumer interviews across 18 markets in 2026, combined with ESW’s aggregated international transaction data. Third-party figures are drawn from the sources below and cover the US unless stated.